UK elections: Place bets now!

CTrees · Joined: 20 Jul 2006 Posts: 3772

First exit polling by Sky and ITV news is showing 307/255/59 for Con/Lab/Lib, which would be a loss of seats for the Lib Dems, but still a hung parliament.

(what I had it right all along, didn't make any changes >_> )
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picturesofsky · Joined: 12 May 2008 Posts: 3072 Location: England

You mean a huge gain of seats for Lib Dems, and a huge loss of seats for Labour.

I can't watch. Going to bed.
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Fnorder · Guest

"Con/Lab/Lib"... Unless something really unexpected happened!

CTrees · Joined: 20 Jul 2006 Posts: 3772

No - Sky's initial exit polling, based on a uniform swing model, is predicting a loss of three seats for the Liberal Democrats, a bigger loss for Labor, and ridiculous gains for the Conservatives. That's what's so wonky - BBC is skeptical.

Also, watching them run in the boxes and bags of vote... things... is just comical. Looks like a Japanese game show, tbh, passing boxes, running from point to point, etc.
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picturesofsky · Joined: 12 May 2008 Posts: 3072 Location: England

Oh, you got your first post wrong, and raised my hopes needlessly for the lib dems, you bastard. You meant Con/Lab/Lib.
_________________
Ironically, Halen's one of the few people here I wouldn't worry about terrifying my friends and family. In my head he ends every real life conversation stroking his chin and saying, "well yes, that sounds reasonable."

ShadowCell · Joined: 02 Aug 2008 Posts: 7394 Location: California

after all that pontificating and all that "Nick Clegg is the British Obama" shit, the Lib Dems are losing seats?

CTrees · Joined: 20 Jul 2006 Posts: 3772

No one quoted it - you can't prove anything!

*flees*

Unrelated: Fivethirtyeight is showing that, if Sky really was using uniform swing, that would mean the popular vote was approximately con 38.5, lab 29.3, lib 23.3.

EDIT: fivethirtyeight, using those numbers from Sky and then extrapolating backwards to estimated popular vote numbers, has just done a new projection (that's three removals from reality, so... yeah)

That would be a decisive win for the Conservatives, then, with a clear majority, and no gain at all for the Lib Dems, which still seems a little strange.
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Mizike · Joined: 09 Jul 2006 Posts: 5146 Location: Iowa City

Why would we trust Sky?
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Willem · Joined: 09 Jul 2006 Posts: 6306 Location: wasteland style

I wouldn't. Even if they're right, I'd refuse to believe reality
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Mizike · Joined: 09 Jul 2006 Posts: 5146 Location: Iowa City

Further research indicated that the Beeb is also spouting these numbers. However, with between a fifth and a quarter of the electorate voting by mail (which is not counted in exit polling), I'll still take a wait and see approach.
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Scire aliquid laus est, pudor est non discere velle
"It is laudable to know something, it is disgraceful to not want to learn"
~Seneca

CTrees · Joined: 20 Jul 2006 Posts: 3772

Yeah... Everything I'm seeing is that no one actually knows anything at all. So, British Festers, how long before the results are generally known for sure? Because I've got no idea (I just find watching this to be fascinating)
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CTrees · Joined: 20 Jul 2006 Posts: 3772

Per the BBC: if everything follows Washington and Sunderland West (it won't, but still interesting to think about), it'll be the biggest swing since WWII (and apparently you guys still call that one "The" War? Interesting. We've had so many since then...)
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Teh Digital Dragon · Posted: Thu May 06, 2010 4:26 pm Post subject:

An election like this we won't really know shit until tomorrow afternoon.

By my maths the exit polls only have to of called twelve seats wrong for a lib-lab coalition to be feasible, I believe they've been wrong by as much as sixty or seventy seats in the past.
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Teh Digital Dragon · Posted: Thu May 06, 2010 4:32 pm Post subject:

And yeah, the second world war still looms large as "the war" in the british psyche. Hi again everyone btw.

If the unionists make up the difference for the tories through a deal surely that would be a problem if, say, conflict were to flare up in northern ireland again? The uk government's abillity to affect change relies on impartiality.
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"You cannot run away from a weakness; you must sometimes fight it out or perish. And if that be so, why not now, and where you stand?"

Teh Digital Dragon · Posted: Thu May 06, 2010 4:35 pm Post subject:

One of the candidates in the Kirkcaldy constitency is wearing a kilt...another is doing what looks to be a constant silent black power salute. Does the fact that it is Brown's seat inspire crazies?
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"You cannot run away from a weakness; you must sometimes fight it out or perish. And if that be so, why not now, and where you stand?"