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Wonks, armchair strategists, and interested people: Help!

 
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Dogen



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
Posts: 10892
Location: Bellingham, WA

PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:02 pm    Post subject: Wonks, armchair strategists, and interested people: Help! Reply with quote

Hi there. I'm on a timeline, and I need to collect explanations regarding the outcome of the election. I'm looking for "premortems" and postmortems. We're mainly looking for big picture stuff - discussions about changes in the House, Senate, governorships, etc. as a whole, rather than individual races. A "premortem" would be a prediction about the outcome (so, before Nov. 2nd), along with an explanation for why it will be so. A postmortem is the same, just after Nov. 2nd, naturally. All I ask is that you drop a link in this thread. I'm looking for any type of analysis - conservative, liberal, green, libertarian, nonpartisan, anything!

I know many of you read this stuff for fun, like me. I'm hoping that as you read, you'll be kind enough to drop links here for me to collect. Thanks!
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Mizike



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 5133
Location: Iowa City

PostPosted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 5:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I liked this.
http://capitalgainsandgames.com/blog/bruce-bartlett/2014/ray-fairs-final-call

Quote:
One last point. Fair estimates that the Democrats' share of the two-party vote has fallen by almost one and a half percentage points since January, when their share was estimated at 51.63 percent. This further supports the idea that Democrats are suffering primarily from a weak economy and high unemployment. Campaign strategy, financial contributions and all the other stuff that candidates and the media obsess about probably had only a marginal impact on the outcome in terms of the aggregate vote for each party.

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Shadic



Joined: 26 Feb 2007
Posts: 317
Location: Portland State University

PostPosted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 5:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Would FiveThirtyEight count? The forecast on the right side shows what they thought it would end up on Monday.
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Mindslicer



Joined: 04 Sep 2006
Posts: 1891
Location: North of the People's Republic of Massachusetts

PostPosted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://reason.com/archives/2010/11/04/the-more-things-change

Quote:
There are lots of metaphors flying around to describe Tuesday's Republican victory. Landslide. Earthquake. Tsunami. They make for drama, but they're not really accurate. When a major natural disaster hits, it leaves the landscape visibly altered. But this event will leave most things unchanged.

...

Candidates may vow to take quick action on major issues, somehow forgetting that our system is designed expressly to prevent quick action on major issues.

The GOP takeover of the House is far more useful as a brake than a steering wheel. The new majority can stop Obama from advancing new proposals by voting them down. But it can't force him to accept Republican ones.
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Dogen



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
Posts: 10892
Location: Bellingham, WA

PostPosted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 8:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, what we're looking at is how people explain elections - the reasons they attribute to the outcomes. 538 is great for reading about the science of predicting outcomes, but Silver doesn't often talk about why people vote the way they did (or at least, not in depth). What I need are explanations of the election - voters turned against Dems for X, they liked Repubs for Y, etc.

See, we're studying how political bias influences how people recall the turning points in elections. So, during the 2008 elections we found that Democrats attributed Obama's win to things Obama did - he was a Washington outsider, he was a Dem that seemed at ease speaking of faith, etc. Republicans tended to attribute McCain's loss to neutral events - things neither he nor Obama had control over, like the economic crisis, the war in Iraq, dissatisfaction with Republicans among the electorate, etc.

So we're looking for the same types of explanations as to why the midterm election happened the way it did. Why do liberals think they lost the House? Why do conservatives think they won it? Why do both think the Senate majority stayed the same? etc, etc.
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Dogen



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
Posts: 10892
Location: Bellingham, WA

PostPosted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 8:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I appreciate you guys being willing to help me out, though. We're kind of on a deadline, and there are three of us who have been scouring the internets for these things... but we're not finding as many as in 2008. Probably because that was a Presidential election, but the standard go-to people aren't coming through. Even Redstate is reading more like 538 this season, or focusing on single races. Makes me a sad researcher. Sad
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Major Tom



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 7562

PostPosted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 9:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

anecdotally, most of what i've seen has added up to a big 2010 question mark -- some claim it's an atlas shrug, some just shrug
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Dogen



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
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Location: Bellingham, WA

PostPosted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 9:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just finished reading Mindslicer's link. Apropos, even if I can't use it in my research (it looks forward, I need backward-looking). Good read, if anyone's interested.
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Him



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
Posts: 4191
Location: On edge

PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 12:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pre-election analysis:Should You Vote for the Democrats? ó 2010 Elections
Post-election analysis:
Republicans Win Big in Elections ó Bankruptcy of Democratic Party Leads to Spectacular Fall
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Kilgore



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 2833
Location: Portland, Or

PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 5:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You might check out the last week or so of The Daily Dish. Andrew Sullivan is a prolific linker.
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Major Tom



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 7562

PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 1:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/11/4/917443/-Its-not-an-enthusiasm-gap

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/11/7/918365/-The-Year-of-the-Woman-that-wasnt
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Thy Brilliance



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 3599
Location: Relative

PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 6:34 am    Post subject: BURDEN OF PROOF Reply with quote

Dogen wrote:
I appreciate you guys being willing to help me out, though. We're kind of on a deadline, and there are three of us who have been scouring the internets for these things... but we're not finding as many as in 2008. Probably because that was a Presidential election, but the standard go-to people aren't coming through. Even Redstate is reading more like 538 this season, or focusing on single races. Makes me a sad researcher. Sad


His livelihood depends on sources with proprietary knowledge.

He's not going to spoon feed them to you on a silver platter.

http://www.bizjournals.com/washington/research/bol-marketing/

http://gethelp.library.upenn.edu/guides/polisci/polls.html

Bam. Done.
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