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Feminism because why not make a thread for it?
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Sam



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 9511

PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 5:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Okay fellow republicans. so we are like waaaaay in trouble right, haha, like literally every non geriatric person on earth thinks that we are like totally crazy bad luddite nutbags who hate women and minorities. we need a way to fix this. we need a way to not be complete poison to pretty much everyone who will be voting after all of today's old people die."

"yo we could try, like, making it national news that we are trying to ram a crazy nuts anti abortion bill through the texas congress and there will be like a bunch of puttering old white men trying to shout down a girl who's filibustering us to prevent the passage of the bill."

"interesting, interesting. tell me more. will this bill be like so odious that literally even something like 80% of texas doesn't want it or something"

"yeah, yeah, something like that"

"What if after this becomes like one of the most watched and memorable legislative events EVER and people just spent hours watching this taken all the way to midnight and some hovering old dudes object to things like back braces, let's like, pass the bill after midnight after the filibuster successfully makes it to the end of the day and just give a big fat finger to everyone"

"YEAH. That would be awesome. That wouldn't make us look bad at all. OH DUDE we should be doing this after we introduce a bunch of anti-minority-voting laws we previously weren't allowed to do by the voting rights act, two hours after the SCOTUS conservatives strike down really important anti-racial-discrimination parts of them."

"YEAH LETS DO THIS"

AND SO THE REPUBLICANS WERE SAVED FROM DECLINE INTO HATED IRRELEVANCE
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Samsally



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
Posts: 6439

PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 5:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

i don't know. these things -keep happening-. how many more losses is it gunna take before things actually change?

has it always been this bleak or does it just seem so, right now.
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Sam



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 9511

PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 6:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The damage is already done. The change is already happening.

The thing is, though, that the way people work precludes any hope of this being a relatively quick process. It just makes it a nearly inevitable one.

Simply put: people are really bad at ideological change. We get an idea about what the "right" ideology or party is, and we stick with it through hell or high water and are really good at telling ourselves we have made the right choice and we avoid any cognitive dissonance because we don't like it because it hurts. The absolute best way to determine who a person will vote for at any age is to look at who they vote for when they're 20. Because whatever you've decided at age 20 is what nearly everyone will carry with them forever. The amount of people who do change their minds is mostly irrelevant, barring extreme circumstances with little precedent.

The people who elect republicans into power do so because no matter how much evidence you can throw at them, they're still going to vote for republicans. The problem is that now multiple generations have been building up in a formative environment which leads them to loathe conservatives. So when you look at everyone under the age of 35, they're voting democratic with such complete and total reliability that if only people under the age of 35 voted, the republican party could not exist as a national power. It would be a regional southern thing at best. It would totally collapse.

And given literally everything we know about the way people vote, these young voters are never, never, never going to swing conservative. Ever, ever. And as they age they become more reliable voters. Soon, they'll be the vast majority of our votes.

The writing is on the fucking wall. If the republicans didn't have their gerrymandering, they wouldn't even have the house right now, and they sure as fuck wouldn't have nearly as many state legislatures. They are sustaining themselves on a garbage diet of pandering, gerrymandering, and the desperate disenfranchising of minorities and marginalized groups. They need shit like "anti-fraud" voter id laws. They need states that are going to scalp urban voting booth budgets and personnel. They need partisan redistricting. They are going flat-out balls to the wall on these strategies because keeping young and colored people from voting is literally all they can fucking do to stay afloat.

This is all over. It is so, so over. Mark my words. American conservatism in its present incarnation has guaranteed its demise. I have no need to question it.

But as it goes and as theory holds it, we don't get it now. Takes a while for our current crop of shitty racist homophobic puttering old fucks to die off so that their megachurches can't pile them off in buses to go vote for god's chosen warriors.
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Mini J



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 1164
Location: Toronto, ON

PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 7:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well twitter has started lighting up about it being confirmed dead now? Somehow? My guess is that the Republicans figured out there are hundreds of thousands of witnesses to their malfeasance, and they are terrified of their unethical (illegal possibly?) tampering with timestamps becoming something on the public record.

But for all I know I'm also wildly off. I also echo a lot of Samsally's pessimism, sadly. Especially considering the terrifying strengthening of conservatism up here. I can only hope it goes as Sam suggests.
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Sam



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 7:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't worry too much. The data is staggering. If only people the age of 35 and under voted in the kerry/bush election, Kerry wins something like 375/163.

And think about how long ago that election was.

And think about all the staggering demographic change that has happened since then (as a specific example, Colorado has gone blue in an effectively irreversible way).

The GOP has maxed out the vote bias element up to the limits of the voting rights act. It will try for a little bit more now.

it's kind of pushed to the theoretical maximum, barring them being able to take more state legislatures/governorships (lawl yeah right)

nothing left to do but the waiting.
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Adyon



Joined: 27 May 2012
Posts: 1160
Location: Behind my Cintiq

PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 2:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah. Currently dead. So it seems.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tag/wendy-davis-filibuster
http://www.newsday.com/news/nation/wendy-davis-filibusters-abortion-bill-vote-misses-deadline-1.5571336
Quote:
The final outcome took several hours to sort out.
Initially, Republicans insisted the vote started before the midnight deadline and passed the bill that Democrats spent the day trying to kill. But after official computer records and printouts of the voting record showed the vote took place Wednesday, and then were changed to read Tuesday, senators retreated into a private meeting to reach a conclusion.
At 3 a.m., Dewhurst emerged from the meeting still insisting the 19-10 vote was in time, but said, "with all the ruckus and noise going on, I couldn't sign the bill" and declared it dead.
He denounced the more than 400 protesters who staged what they called "a people's filibuster" from 11:45 p.m. to well past midnight. He denied mishandling the debate.
"I didn't lose control (of the chamber). We had an unruly mob," Dewhurst said. He even hinted that Gov. Rick Perry may immediately call another 30-day special session, adding: "It's over. It's been fun. But see you soon."



Good news for my state. I was gonna be pissed. The Dallas Morning News has been doing some great coverage of the bill. They've covered all its sides pretty fairly, though in such a way as to present the "opponents of the bill" information second in a way that almost thoroughly negates the proceeding statement.

Like...It had quotes similar to this. Proponents say, "This bill will force clinics to provide better healthcare by required equipment for the mother's health". Opponents say, "This bill will force clinics to have equipment they DO NOT AND WILL NOT USE that will cost so much only a handful of clinics can afford to purchase it." And then they always had a message about "such and such medical organization" is against this bill based on the opponents' point.

Basically, most of Texas doesn't want this bill.
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WheelsOfConfusion



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 12189
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 4:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So the filibuster narrowly succeeded despite everything the state GOP tried to pull, up to and including illegal record manipulations.
Hopefully the "illegal record manipulations" part becomes the major media story here. That may be the only way this can't be spun by right-wing media outlets as a noble effort derailed by crooked hippie baby-killing protestors.
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stripeypants



Joined: 24 Feb 2013
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Location: Land of the Grumpuses

PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm expecting Rachel Maddow, Chris Hayes and Melissa Harris Parry to be all over it. Dunno about anyone else.
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WheelsOfConfusion



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 5:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stripeypants wrote:
I'm expecting Rachel Maddow, Chris Hayes and Melissa Harris Parry to be all over it. Dunno about anyone else.

At least this will be something to bring up at the next Texas Board of Education meeting where they try to re-determine that history wasn't so liberal after all.
"Hey you guys speaking historical revisionism, remember that time the GOP in the senate tried to literally re-write the history of this vote?"
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stripeypants



Joined: 24 Feb 2013
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Location: Land of the Grumpuses

PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 5:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I bet they won't talk about it there.

Hey Sam, what do you think will come up to replace the GOP? Because I'm assuming (and hoping) it's not just gonna be Democrats forever. I was rather looking forward to the idea of at least two parties to vote from when I grew up, and am quite disappointed.
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mouse



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
Posts: 17176
Location: under the bed

PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 9:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

well, there are some divisions in the democratic party. there are a lot of pretty conservative democrats, who are irritating the more progressive wing of the party (look, for example, about the things that were said when harry reid failed to end the fillibuster). ultimately those will probably split, with the main-line republicans joining up with conservative democrats. and the tea-party republicans will hang on as their own tiny party, with the john birchers and whatever george wallace's party was. but hopefully they will be sufficiently weakened to be no more than a fringe, and the regular people can go back to doing things like compromising and getting useful bills passed and maybe even listening to the voters every now and again.

this is the thing i don't get - why do these idiots who are going against the will of the electorate keep getting re-elected? do they just have so much money that no one else tries?
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WheelsOfConfusion



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 10:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In Texas, gerrymandering definitely plays a big part. Another thing is that they only seem to step outside of the "will of the electorate" on a few occasions, and nobody raises much fuss for what they do the other 90% of the time.
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Darqcyde



Joined: 11 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 11:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anyone have a link to that old video where the Texas legislators are hitting other rep's voting buttons, even across party lines?
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Sam



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 9511

PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

stripeypants wrote:
I bet they won't talk about it there.

Hey Sam, what do you think will come up to replace the GOP? Because I'm assuming (and hoping) it's not just gonna be Democrats forever. I was rather looking forward to the idea of at least two parties to vote from when I grew up, and am quite disappointed.


It is nearly impossible to pull up a probable model based off of historical and political science precedent, because the republican party collapsing would be a realm that would be too different from stuff the modern world has experienced before. There's theoretically likely results but there are so many possible results on a continuum that no one answer is likely.

The MOST LIKELY general outcomes given a collapse of the GOP are based on how the GOP as a fractured or regional power will cease to have their one remaining structural and foundational advantage: big money. Without that, it will implode to the point where at most parts of the country they won't have a 'spoiler effect' that keeps the democratic vote homogenized.

In this scenario, as soon as conservatism isn't a spoiler, it's fucking dead. And (again, most likely) what you will see as a result is that the country will end up with a two party choice between a leftist and a center-left party.

Best "GOP Collapses" guess is that the democratic party itself experiences an organic split, but not a schism, necessarily. The center-left party will probably be the Democrats. The leftist party will who the fuck even knows.

There are also non-total-collapse scenarios, where hypothetically the GOP brand name survives but essentially becomes our new center-left party. Or resurges many many many decades from now if/when specific economic conditions or crisis issues or the democratic party becoming indolent and terrible during decades of uninterrupted supermajority rule causes a pendulum swing back to (much evolved) republican/conservative ethos as reformers, after a whole generation gestates in a world where the Democrats are exactly as fuckawful as the Conservatives are today.
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Dogen



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
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Location: Bellingham, WA

PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think the GOP is going anywhere. For one thing, they're still winning elections in a lot of districts. I dare say, conservative pundits in 1996 were probably saying the same thing about the end of the Democratic party. Our two party system simply doesn't allow for one of the major parties to die easily. Anyone who is more conservative than the Dems - and, despite their move right, there are still a lot of those voters - will vote R just because. At most we'll see both parties moving back toward the center, but I wouldn't hold my breath. I think a significant portion of "the base" votes for the religious right rather than the political right, and if that's true then the Republicans could stop running candidates all together and still win races across the south.
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