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Thy Brilliance



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 3:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ShadowCell wrote:
yeah there is pretty much no chance World War III starts over this. nobody is willing to actually go to war with Russia over the chunk of Ukraine it just stole, so if Ukraine wants Crimea back, they're gonna have to do it themselves.

more interesting, though, is the possibility that the Kremlin's embrace of a separatist group in another country will stir up separatist sentiment at home. Russia is riven with ethnic groups that occupy some vital territory.

i'm sure Putin will deal with them with his usual conciliatory, consensus-building approach of massive state violence, but it's something worth keeping an eye on, i think.


Quote:
close to 96% of voters want to become part of that country, according to the Crimean Electoral Commission.


explain
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WheelsOfConfusion



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

180 million year old fern has fossilized cell structures, including chromosomes, that are essentially indistinguishable from modern relatives. This family of ferns has kept its genetic structure pretty much the same since the Jurassic period (though obviously, not all the genes would be the same). Frankly I think the most amazing part is the preservation of cell structure at all.
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Sam



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 9674

PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ShadowCell wrote:
yeah there is pretty much no chance World War III starts over this. nobody is willing to actually go to war with Russia over the chunk of Ukraine it just stole, so if Ukraine wants Crimea back, they're gonna have to do it themselves.

more interesting, though, is the possibility that the Kremlin's embrace of a separatist group in another country will stir up separatist sentiment at home. Russia is riven with ethnic groups that occupy some vital territory.

i'm sure Putin will deal with them with his usual conciliatory, consensus-building approach of massive state violence, but it's something worth keeping an eye on, i think.


Russia is basically a failed kleptocracy at this point (I gotta thank NPR for seeding me with that label for it) and it's going to begin a slow implosion of its petro state-iness on account of the general corruption issues they have, and how brazen they make plays like this crimea thing

Putin was gonna have crimea one way or the other but they could have managed it in a way which didn't give the west an opportunity to kick them out of the G8
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fritterdonut



Joined: 24 Jul 2012
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thy Brilliance wrote:
ShadowCell wrote:
yeah there is pretty much no chance World War III starts over this. nobody is willing to actually go to war with Russia over the chunk of Ukraine it just stole, so if Ukraine wants Crimea back, they're gonna have to do it themselves.

more interesting, though, is the possibility that the Kremlin's embrace of a separatist group in another country will stir up separatist sentiment at home. Russia is riven with ethnic groups that occupy some vital territory.

i'm sure Putin will deal with them with his usual conciliatory, consensus-building approach of massive state violence, but it's something worth keeping an eye on, i think.


Quote:
close to 96% of voters want to become part of that country, according to the Crimean Electoral Commission.


explain


The options on the referendum were apparently "Leave Ukraine, or join Russia". A lot of the pro-Ukrainians boycotted the vote (since they wouldn't have a choice that reflects them). Also, the Russians fixed the vote (only flights into and out of Moscow allowed for a week before the referendum, lol). And here, it appears that a journalist was able to vote in the referendum with a Russian passport. Not to mention the NotRussian Soldiers (and by that I mean Russian Soldiers minus insignia) standing around the voting booths armed?

Sounds like a legit vote man.

Dickpuppets4Putin train, Next stop: Donetsk.
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Felgraf



Joined: 10 Jul 2012
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 8:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

fritterdonut wrote:
Thy Brilliance wrote:
ShadowCell wrote:
yeah there is pretty much no chance World War III starts over this. nobody is willing to actually go to war with Russia over the chunk of Ukraine it just stole, so if Ukraine wants Crimea back, they're gonna have to do it themselves.

more interesting, though, is the possibility that the Kremlin's embrace of a separatist group in another country will stir up separatist sentiment at home. Russia is riven with ethnic groups that occupy some vital territory.

i'm sure Putin will deal with them with his usual conciliatory, consensus-building approach of massive state violence, but it's something worth keeping an eye on, i think.


Quote:
close to 96% of voters want to become part of that country, according to the Crimean Electoral Commission.


explain


The options on the referendum were apparently "Leave Ukraine, or join Russia". A lot of the pro-Ukrainians boycotted the vote (since they wouldn't have a choice that reflects them). Also, the Russians fixed the vote (only flights into and out of Moscow allowed for a week before the referendum, lol). And here, it appears that a journalist was able to vote in the referendum with a Russian passport. Not to mention the NotRussian Soldiers (and by that I mean Russian Soldiers minus insignia) standing around the voting booths armed?

Sounds like a legit vote man.

Dickpuppets4Putin train, Next stop: Donetsk.


Also, aren't the Tatars like 12% of the Crimean Population?

Who... well,to say they 'dislike' Russia would be putting it very mildly?
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mouse



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

the vote was only in crimea, right? so the rest of ukraine had no say in whether a whole province walked off.

and yeah, the tatars are not happy, and are not going to get any happier. according to NPR yesterday, right after putin made a speech saying that of _course_ he would protect the rights of the tatars (even though the ethnic russians were the ones who have been horribly oppressed in crimea), one of his officials announced that the tatars would be asked to leave the area they are now living.

this is totally going to be a smooth transition with no problems or repercussions on russia from internal minorities whatever.
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ShadowCell



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thy Brilliance wrote:
ShadowCell wrote:
yeah there is pretty much no chance World War III starts over this. nobody is willing to actually go to war with Russia over the chunk of Ukraine it just stole, so if Ukraine wants Crimea back, they're gonna have to do it themselves.

more interesting, though, is the possibility that the Kremlin's embrace of a separatist group in another country will stir up separatist sentiment at home. Russia is riven with ethnic groups that occupy some vital territory.

i'm sure Putin will deal with them with his usual conciliatory, consensus-building approach of massive state violence, but it's something worth keeping an eye on, i think.


Quote:
close to 96% of voters want to become part of that country, according to the Crimean Electoral Commission.


explain


i'm not sure why you trust the results of an election supervised by heavily-armed Russian soldiers but either way i was talking about the autonomous republics and ethnic enclaves and such within Russia already, like Tatarstan and Chechnya.

i'm sure if they made any moves towards independence, Putin would bring down the hammer, but i still think his moves in Ukraine risk stirring up unrest at home.
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mouse



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WheelsOfConfusion wrote:
180 million year old fern has fossilized cell structures, including chromosomes, that are essentially indistinguishable from modern relatives. This family of ferns has kept its genetic structure pretty much the same since the Jurassic period (though obviously, not all the genes would be the same). Frankly I think the most amazing part is the preservation of cell structure at all.


i continue to be amazed at things we can now find preserved. it's so exciting, the extra window we get into evolution - what has proven enduring, and what has been available for change.
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mouse



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 9:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ShadowCell wrote:
Thy Brilliance wrote:
ShadowCell wrote:
yeah there is pretty much no chance World War III starts over this. nobody is willing to actually go to war with Russia over the chunk of Ukraine it just stole, so if Ukraine wants Crimea back, they're gonna have to do it themselves.

more interesting, though, is the possibility that the Kremlin's embrace of a separatist group in another country will stir up separatist sentiment at home. Russia is riven with ethnic groups that occupy some vital territory.

i'm sure Putin will deal with them with his usual conciliatory, consensus-building approach of massive state violence, but it's something worth keeping an eye on, i think.


Quote:
close to 96% of voters want to become part of that country, according to the Crimean Electoral Commission.


explain


i'm not sure why you trust the results of an election supervised by heavily-armed Russian soldiers but either way i was talking about the autonomous republics and ethnic enclaves and such within Russia already, like Tatarstan and Chechnya.

i'm sure if they made any moves towards independence, Putin would bring down the hammer, but i still think his moves in Ukraine risk stirring up unrest at home.


it seems like it has to - maybe not immediately or directly, but if the tatars in crimea start bucking, the tatars elsewhere in russia are likely to be sympathetic, and if putin continues his "oh pity the poor oppressed ethnic russians we must save them" rhetoric, it's likely to raise the hackles of the people he is oppressing. i don't know if it could get as far as a move for independence, but it's certainly going to result in some significant unrest. and he hasn't managed to make the chechens go away, so he's unlike to make any other opposition groups vanish either.
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Echo



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 9:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
the vote was only in crimea, right? so the rest of ukraine had no say in whether a whole province walked off.


In 6 months Scotland votes on independence, and the rest of the UK gets no say (other than trying to persuade voters in Scotland) whether or not Scotland walks off. There's an awful lot of holes to pick in the legitimacy of the Crimean vote; I'm not entirely sure that that's one. Or at least it's not one that anyone in the UK can complain about when we're using that principle.
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mouse



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 10:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

but is it a referendum on independence(i.e., just a way for scotland to make clear to the world how it feels)(i hope 'referendum' is the right word for that), or a choice that will be immediately acted on, should the vote be in favor? putin is interpreting the crimea vote as "YES YES THEY ARE PART OF US _NOW_!!!", and this is a problem in part because apparently the ukrainian constitution says that all of ukraine must vote on any actual dissolution. if it had been just a referendum, that was crimea, in essence, saying to ukraine "we want to break it off and get back with our old boyfriend", that could then have been followed by a vote in which ukraine decides whether they want to try to win crimea back, or whether they are good with the breakup, and then everyone works out who gets what furniture, i don't think anyone would have grounds for complaint. but this is basically your girlfriend's old boyfriend breaking into your place, holding a gun to her head, and when she says "no, of course i still love you", dragging her off.

in other words: i haven't really read up on this scottish vote thing. or what the british constitution says about scotland getting to walk away. and in either event scotland/crimea breaking off to be all independent is a little different than scotland/crimea getting appended to some different country (i dunno, iceland, maybe? who else is up there?) on very short notice.
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mouse



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 10:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ok, on doing some checking, it looks like _both_ are referendums, and russia is rather jumping the gun by immediately annexing crimea. also there is a bit of difference in the questions, with the scotland one being "should scotland be an independent country?" (with, presumably, both 'yes' and 'no' being available choices, since they have been in past referendums), while the crimea one offered no 'no' option - you could vote in favor, or not at all.

if the scottish referendum is interpreted as an advisory which demands action, but the rest of britain has to agree on the details of the final divorce, then i would say britain still has a valid complaint about the rest of ukraine not being able to vote (which, again, is part of the ukrainian constitution, so it is kind of a problem no matter what the situation with scotland is).

and in any event, the real problem is that putin jumped to make fact the results of a very iffy referendum. and everyone can complain about that.
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Echo



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 10:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yep, the Scottish referendum is on independence - if there's a majority in favour, then negotiations begin between the Scottish government and the UK govenment on Scotland splitting away, possibly changing currency, setting up its own institutions for the few bits of government it doesn't already control, that sort of thing. The "Yes" camp plan for independence in around 2017, I think, which is a world away from the Crimea's zero-to-annexation-in-three-weeks thing.

However, the Scottish independence referendum was agreed by the UK parliament, unlike the Crimean one. And is on creating a new country - there aren't any other countries Scotland would really want to join, though there are suggestions there would be some sort of alliance/loose association with the Scandinavian countries.

There's not that much in common, but enough to help Putin pretend at some sort of legitimacy for Crimea breaking away from Ukraine. A possibly more helpful analogy might be the various Catalan efforts to have an independence referendum, which the Spanish government is doing it's best to stifle; but I know even less about that situation than I do about Crimea.
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Felgraf



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 11:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Echo wrote:
Quote:
the vote was only in crimea, right? so the rest of ukraine had no say in whether a whole province walked off.


In 6 months Scotland votes on independence, and the rest of the UK gets no say (other than trying to persuade voters in Scotland) whether or not Scotland walks off. There's an awful lot of holes to pick in the legitimacy of the Crimean vote; I'm not entirely sure that that's one. Or at least it's not one that anyone in the UK can complain about when we're using that principle.


Ah, but remember, the Crimean Refferndum was given two options:

Join Russia-

Become Independent from Ukraine Let Crimean Parliment (Which had been taken over by... the pro russian party) decide whether or not to join
Russia

'Remain part of Ukraine' was not an option on the ballot.
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WheelsOfConfusion



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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't forget that the Crimean parliament was basically seized by armed gunmen when the official Prime Minister of Crimea was ousted and a new figurehead installed. The electronic votes cast for this (and to set up the re-unification referendum) couldn't be accurately overseen. It wouldn't be inaccurate to say that it took place at gunpoint.
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