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How much you wanna bet? (Intrade)
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Major Tom



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 7564

PostPosted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 7:49 am    Post subject: How much you wanna bet? (Intrade) Reply with quote

Sam made a minor killing laying odds in favor of an Obama presidency, not so long ago.

after the fact, it certainly seems like easy money -- however, i don't have any money to play loose and easy with, so i'm going to resort to pretend with the upcoming us election season using intrade.com as my fantasy bookie.

for starters, if i had money to play around with i'd wager/invest:

- 50 shares @$25.2/share for a dem. house of reps
- 500 shares @$50.0/share for a dem. senate
- ? on a dem governor of South Carolina (there's no line and i don't know how intrade works with that -- depending on opening price, consider this 10 to 1000 shares)




how would you make some lunch money off of this coming november vote?
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Sam



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 11364

PostPosted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 11:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would bet on a democratic majority senate at this point, yeah.

in fact, might do that right now!
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nathan



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
Posts: 6316

PostPosted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 1:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't know near enough about any of the particular races to hazard a guess at the overall picture, but I'm comforted that y'all are confident enough to shake some wampum at the dems.
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mouse



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
Posts: 21315
Location: under the bed

PostPosted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 1:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i'm not sure if i want to make large sums of money, or have all my bets be sure things. because i want to bet dems across the board, because i'm really worried about what will happen if the republicans get back into power....but i dunno if that is going to happen. and i could always use a few extra bucks.
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Mizike



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 5146
Location: Iowa City

PostPosted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 2:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't bet on the dems to have the house (nor on the Republicans, for that matter) - that's too volatile.

Dems keep the Senate is easy money, though. For reals.




South Carolina is too crazy to bet on.
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Sam



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 11364

PostPosted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 2:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mouse wrote:
i'm not sure if i want to make large sums of money, or have all my bets be sure things. because i want to bet dems across the board, because i'm really worried about what will happen if the republicans get back into power....


With the bets it should always be cleanly separated from what you would desire to have happen. It's entirely about what is factually likely to have happen.

Senate keeps democratic majority has become an excellent bet since the advent of O'Donnell; her being the winner of the primary alone halved republican chances of taking senate majority, and the resulting media circus over who the tea party fronts as a consideration of 'qualified candidate,' along with other things, have given the democrats a welcome relief that has effectively counteracted at least a month or two of republican gains in polls.

The house races are fucking nuts. They entirely hinge on how apathetic young voters are. Won't touch them.

Gah, now that I think about it, I should have jumped right back on intrade the second I looked at 538's polls on O'Donnell and realized what had just happened. I wasn't even thinking about that. I don't even need to go to intrade to know that trading had to have sharply banked after that primary.
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Major Tom



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 7564

PostPosted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

someone still needs to describe what happens to create a new betting line on intrade.

i need to know how many millions i haven't made when the dems win the governor's seat in south carolina.
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Sam



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 5:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Conceptual betting should also be done as a hypothetical portfolio. I dunno. I have an actuarial portfolio of lifetime earnings of about $5.5k from Intrade, and that is *entirely* from trusting Nate Silver while Strategic Vision and Zogby dupe the shit out of the general media.

It leads to an incredible disparity between 'what's probably actually going to happen' and 'what people think are going to happen' which lends itself to profitable margins of probability on Intrade.
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Arc Tempest



Joined: 27 Jan 2007
Posts: 5317
Location: Oregon

PostPosted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 5:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I bet eleven billion fakedollars that O'Donnell is gonna win Delaware.

Clearly the polls are only a reflection of her outsider status! Real Americans will vote her in in droves.
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Major Tom



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 7564

PostPosted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 5:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

yep -- even considering some sort of abusive "vig+fees" of 20%, i think a 30% win on a democratic senate is ridiculous in the realm of 'follow the queen'
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Sam



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 09, 2010 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's one I'm torn on:

Michael Steele to depart as chairman of the RNC before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010 trading currently around ... 6.

It's so .. tempting. But risky! But tempting.
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Major Tom



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

.06 to go?

throw 100 at it and put the check in lucite.
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Major Tom



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 7564

PostPosted: Tue Oct 12, 2010 1:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

good gravy no body cares what happens -- put the buy order in lucite.
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Sam



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 11364

PostPosted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 9:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ok, I got trades on dems controlling senate at 42.2
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Sam



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 11364

PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2010 5:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dems losing senate is down to 2% probability in the 538 model, and that's where I shoveled the lion's share of the cash.

I AM SO HAPPY

I AM MAKING BANK.
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