Sinfest

Dogen · Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 9288 Location: Bellingham, WA

Hi there. I'm on a timeline, and I need to collect explanations regarding the outcome of the election. I'm looking for "premortems" and postmortems. We're mainly looking for big picture stuff - discussions about changes in the House, Senate, governorships, etc. as a whole, rather than individual races. A "premortem" would be a prediction about the outcome (so, before Nov. 2nd), along with an explanation for why it will be so. A postmortem is the same, just after Nov. 2nd, naturally. All I ask is that you drop a link in this thread. I'm looking for any type of analysis - conservative, liberal, green, libertarian, nonpartisan, anything!

I know many of you read this stuff for fun, like me. I'm hoping that as you read, you'll be kind enough to drop links here for me to collect. Thanks!
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"Worse comes to worst, my people come first, but my tribe lives on every country on earth. I’ll do anything to protect them from hurt, the human race is what I serve." - Baba Brinkman

Mizike · Joined: 09 Jul 2006 Posts: 5120 Location: Iowa City

I liked this.
http://capitalgainsandgames.com/blog/bruce-bartlett/2014/ray-fairs-final-call

Shadic · Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 5:19 am Post subject:

Would FiveThirtyEight count? The forecast on the right side shows what they thought it would end up on Monday.

Mindslicer · Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:33 pm Post subject:

http://reason.com/archives/2010/11/04/the-more-things-change

Dogen · Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 9288 Location: Bellingham, WA

Well, what we're looking at is how people explain elections - the reasons they attribute to the outcomes. 538 is great for reading about the science of predicting outcomes, but Silver doesn't often talk about why people vote the way they did (or at least, not in depth). What I need are explanations of the election - voters turned against Dems for X, they liked Repubs for Y, etc.

See, we're studying how political bias influences how people recall the turning points in elections. So, during the 2008 elections we found that Democrats attributed Obama's win to things Obama did - he was a Washington outsider, he was a Dem that seemed at ease speaking of faith, etc. Republicans tended to attribute McCain's loss to neutral events - things neither he nor Obama had control over, like the economic crisis, the war in Iraq, dissatisfaction with Republicans among the electorate, etc.

So we're looking for the same types of explanations as to why the midterm election happened the way it did. Why do liberals think they lost the House? Why do conservatives think they won it? Why do both think the Senate majority stayed the same? etc, etc.
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"Worse comes to worst, my people come first, but my tribe lives on every country on earth. I’ll do anything to protect them from hurt, the human race is what I serve." - Baba Brinkman

Dogen · Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 9288 Location: Bellingham, WA

I appreciate you guys being willing to help me out, though. We're kind of on a deadline, and there are three of us who have been scouring the internets for these things... but we're not finding as many as in 2008. Probably because that was a Presidential election, but the standard go-to people aren't coming through. Even Redstate is reading more like 538 this season, or focusing on single races. Makes me a sad researcher. Sad

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"Worse comes to worst, my people come first, but my tribe lives on every country on earth. I’ll do anything to protect them from hurt, the human race is what I serve." - Baba Brinkman

Major Tom · Joined: 09 Jul 2006 Posts: 7562

anecdotally, most of what i've seen has added up to a big 2010 question mark -- some claim it's an atlas shrug, some just shrug

Dogen · Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 9288 Location: Bellingham, WA

I just finished reading Mindslicer's link. Apropos, even if I can't use it in my research (it looks forward, I need backward-looking). Good read, if anyone's interested.
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"Worse comes to worst, my people come first, but my tribe lives on every country on earth. I’ll do anything to protect them from hurt, the human race is what I serve." - Baba Brinkman

Him · Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 3952 Location: Strange planet

Pre-election analysis:Should You Vote for the Democrats? — 2010 Elections
Post-election analysis:
Republicans Win Big in Elections — Bankruptcy of Democratic Party Leads to Spectacular Fall
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"Moderation in temper, is always a virtue; but moderation in principle, is a species of vice. " - Thomas Paine

Kilgore · Joined: 09 Jul 2006 Posts: 2827 Location: Portland, Or

You might check out the last week or so of The Daily Dish. Andrew Sullivan is a prolific linker.
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"Whatever afflicts thee, their asses I shall kick"

-Slick

Major Tom · Joined: 09 Jul 2006 Posts: 7562

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/11/4/917443/-Its-not-an-enthusiasm-gap

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/11/7/918365/-The-Year-of-the-Woman-that-wasnt

Thy Brilliance · Joined: 09 Jul 2006 Posts: 3213 Location: Relative