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Iran is exploding.
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Mizike



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 5133
Location: Iowa City

PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 2:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The graph is not in and of itself evidence of fraud. The fact that the percentages were presented the same across all regions is pretty much stupid and lazy fraud. Mousavi comes from the area of Iran near Azerbaijan and is enormously popular there. The results effectively have Ahmadinejad beating a hometown hero. They even have Mousavi losing Tehran (the first city to riot after the results).

Edit: I scanned your post and didn't see the Azeri stuff the first time. Oh well.
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Sam



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 2:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mizike wrote:
The graph is not in and of itself evidence of fraud.


si si. Nate Silver himself talks about how the pattern is not smoking-gun evidence of fraud in and of itself. It's just x-mega suspicious.

Anyway shit is nuts.

All opposition candidates have been arrested.

Quote:
On Ghaem-Magham Street, a lone chadori woman stood by the roadside, making a peace sign with her index finger wrapped in a green ribbon, saying "Mousavi" to every passing car. Out of 50 cars that passed, all but 5 either honked, rolled down their windows to shout their support, or made peace signs in solidarity.
One man passing by told her, "You wrote Mousavi, they read Ahmadinejad!" She responded: "They're illiterate and need to learn reading."
Then a man in a car moving in the other direction rolled down his window and shouted at her in anger, "You whore! Why are you creating conflict between people?" A basiji (a member of the volunteer paramilitary aligned with Ahmadinejad) charged at her from nowhere with a metal rod and was about to beat her when he was held down and beaten himself by five or six men streaming out of nearby cars.
"I mean, just look at this! If Ahmadinejad won 25 million votes, which they claim, we should be celebrating, right?" an onlooker commented.


Wow, the shit I'm reading!
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Mizike



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
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Location: Iowa City

PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 2:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tehran Bureau's text message updates are killer. People are still on houses chanting and it's past 2:00 AM over there.

This is for serious stuff and the network news doesn't seem to be touching it.
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Sam



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 2:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

People were still rioting at 4am.

This election was more blatantly fixed than Zimbabwe's.

Mousavi was apparently whisked away en route to visit the ayatollah and is now imprisoned, somewhere.

The government is trying to enforce a crackdown on any tech that allows the younger populace to communicate evidence of fraud to each other. But its porous. People are finding ways to Youtube, Facebook, and twitter was never effectively conquered, so thousands of people are doing the whole rooftop "I'm mad as hell and I'm NOT GOING TO TAKE IT ANYMORE" thing.
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Mizike



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
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Location: Iowa City

PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 2:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sam wrote:
"I'm mad as hell and I'm NOT GOING TO TAKE IT ANYMORE"


Allah o akbar.

Saw one of the cell phone vids. Stuff gave me chills. This feels big, but who knows what will happen tomorrow. It sure doesn't seem like this is going to fizzle out.

Exciting times.
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Sam



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 2:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mizike wrote:
Saw one of the cell phone vids. Stuff gave me chills.


Seriously. It made the Network comparison immediate for me.
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WheelsOfConfusion



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 12250
Location: Unknown Kaddath

PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 4:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sam wrote:
The government is trying to enforce a crackdown on any tech that allows the younger populace to communicate evidence of fraud to each other. But its porous. People are finding ways to Youtube, Facebook, and twitter was never effectively conquered...


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Sam



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 6:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://twitter.com/tehranelection
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David Lee



Joined: 18 Apr 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 6:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mizike wrote:
Exciting times.


More like interesting times.
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Bart



Joined: 22 Jul 2006
Posts: 1572

PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 8:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mizike wrote:
Sam wrote:
"I'm mad as hell and I'm NOT GOING TO TAKE IT ANYMORE"


Allah o akbar.

Saw one of the cell phone vids. Stuff gave me chills. This feels big, but who knows what will happen tomorrow. It sure doesn't seem like this is going to fizzle out.

Exciting times.


Any link, I tried looking for the vids, but haven't found them yet.
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gally912



Joined: 03 Nov 2008
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Location: Afghandi-land. Like candy-land, only not as nice.

PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 8:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very interesting stuff.
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Mizike



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
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Location: Iowa City

PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 12:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bart wrote:
Mizike wrote:
Sam wrote:
"I'm mad as hell and I'm NOT GOING TO TAKE IT ANYMORE"


Allah o akbar.

Saw one of the cell phone vids. Stuff gave me chills. This feels big, but who knows what will happen tomorrow. It sure doesn't seem like this is going to fizzle out.

Exciting times.


Any link, I tried looking for the vids, but haven't found them yet.


None of the vids are of terribly great quality.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/the-revolution-will-be-twittered-1.html
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Sam



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The government is dropping agent provaceteurs into the mix and are trying to stage fake protests for mass roundups.

Twitter is cracking that technique somewhat.
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Mizike



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
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Location: Iowa City

PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I saw that - crazy (but it's agents provocateur).

This is a nice summary of how this all feels from a good piece in the New Yorker

Quote:
In the days before the vote, my Iranian contacts breathlessly compared the atmosphere in Iran to that of 1979, the year of the Islamic Revolution. In the last twenty-four hours, the unavoidable analogy has become 1989. The big question is where we are: Wenceslas Square or Tiananmen.


Edit: I can't believe I didn't quote this earlier. This is an anonymous "report" sent to Tehran Bureau yesterday.

Quote:
from Iran sent 2:43 AM Tehran-time (6:13 EST)
[Translated] ďHere the internet is horrible. After much trouble, I was able t log on through a proxy. Iíll try my best to get the news to you. I have news right now that in Shahrake Gharb [neighborhood in northeast Tehran] is absolute chaos. People are in the streets, theyíre chanting. No sign of police. Their protest continues at this hour. I also hear that Niavaran [north Tehran] is a big chaotic too ó at least until an hour ago. Iím sorry my information is fragmented. Iím afraid Iíll get disconnected. In Niavaran people are shouting from their homes. That way when police comes they quickly retreat; so they havenít been able to arrest anyone. Iíve also heard that people captured a few of the Basij guys and gave him a beating. It feels like Martial Law here. Cell phones are down, internet lines are horrible, Facebook is filtered, and Ö I also have news from Ahvaz. They have also announced there that if someone comes out of their house they will be arrested. So keep your fingers crossed and pray for us. Tomorrow is a great day. I gave you the news. Please try to publish it. Thx.Ē


Tomorrow is a great day.
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Darqcyde



Joined: 11 Jul 2006
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Location: A false vacuum abiding in ignorance.

PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 2:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mizike wrote:
I saw that - crazy (but it's agents provocateur).

This is a nice summary of how this all feels from a good piece in the New Yorker

Quote:
In the days before the vote, my Iranian contacts breathlessly compared the atmosphere in Iran to that of 1979, the year of the Islamic Revolution. In the last twenty-four hours, the unavoidable analogy has become 1989. The big question is where we are: Wenceslas Square or Tiananmen.


I've been actually thinking about things along these lines.
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