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UK elections: Place bets now!
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CTrees



Joined: 21 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Thu May 06, 2010 9:06 pm    Post subject: UK elections: Place bets now! Reply with quote

First exit polling by Sky and ITV news is showing 307/255/59 for Con/Lab/Lib, which would be a loss of seats for the Lib Dems, but still a hung parliament.

(what I had it right all along, didn't make any changes >_> )
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Last edited by CTrees on Thu May 06, 2010 9:11 pm; edited 1 time in total
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picturesofsky



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PostPosted: Thu May 06, 2010 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You mean a huge gain of seats for Lib Dems, and a huge loss of seats for Labour.

I can't watch. Going to bed.
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Fnorder
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PostPosted: Thu May 06, 2010 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Con/Lab/Lib"... Unless something really unexpected happened!
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CTrees



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PostPosted: Thu May 06, 2010 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No - Sky's initial exit polling, based on a uniform swing model, is predicting a loss of three seats for the Liberal Democrats, a bigger loss for Labor, and ridiculous gains for the Conservatives. That's what's so wonky - BBC is skeptical.

Also, watching them run in the boxes and bags of vote... things... is just comical. Looks like a Japanese game show, tbh, passing boxes, running from point to point, etc.
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picturesofsky



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PostPosted: Thu May 06, 2010 9:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh, you got your first post wrong, and raised my hopes needlessly for the lib dems, you bastard. You meant Con/Lab/Lib.
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ShadowCell



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PostPosted: Thu May 06, 2010 9:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

after all that pontificating and all that "Nick Clegg is the British Obama" shit, the Lib Dems are losing seats?
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CTrees



Joined: 21 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Thu May 06, 2010 9:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No one quoted it - you can't prove anything!

*flees*

Unrelated: Fivethirtyeight is showing that, if Sky really was using uniform swing, that would mean the popular vote was approximately con 38.5, lab 29.3, lib 23.3.

EDIT: fivethirtyeight, using those numbers from Sky and then extrapolating backwards to estimated popular vote numbers, has just done a new projection (that's three removals from reality, so... yeah)



That would be a decisive win for the Conservatives, then, with a clear majority, and no gain at all for the Lib Dems, which still seems a little strange.
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Mizike



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PostPosted: Thu May 06, 2010 9:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why would we trust Sky?
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Willem



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PostPosted: Thu May 06, 2010 9:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wouldn't. Even if they're right, I'd refuse to believe reality
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Mizike



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PostPosted: Thu May 06, 2010 9:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Further research indicated that the Beeb is also spouting these numbers. However, with between a fifth and a quarter of the electorate voting by mail (which is not counted in exit polling), I'll still take a wait and see approach.
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CTrees



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PostPosted: Thu May 06, 2010 9:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah... Everything I'm seeing is that no one actually knows anything at all. So, British Festers, how long before the results are generally known for sure? Because I've got no idea (I just find watching this to be fascinating)
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CTrees



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PostPosted: Thu May 06, 2010 10:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Per the BBC: if everything follows Washington and Sunderland West (it won't, but still interesting to think about), it'll be the biggest swing since WWII (and apparently you guys still call that one "The" War? Interesting. We've had so many since then...)
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Teh Digital Dragon



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PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2010 12:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

An election like this we won't really know shit until tomorrow afternoon.

By my maths the exit polls only have to of called twelve seats wrong for a lib-lab coalition to be feasible, I believe they've been wrong by as much as sixty or seventy seats in the past.
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Teh Digital Dragon



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PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2010 12:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

And yeah, the second world war still looms large as "the war" in the british psyche. Hi again everyone btw.

If the unionists make up the difference for the tories through a deal surely that would be a problem if, say, conflict were to flare up in northern ireland again? The uk government's abillity to affect change relies on impartiality.
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Teh Digital Dragon



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PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2010 12:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

One of the candidates in the Kirkcaldy constitency is wearing a kilt...another is doing what looks to be a constant silent black power salute. Does the fact that it is Brown's seat inspire crazies?
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