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Mizike

Joined: 09 Jul 2006 Posts: 5120 Location: Iowa City
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Posted: Fri May 07, 2010 1:17 am Post subject: |
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I love ragging on betting markets like intrade. They are so utterly useless.
| 538's live blog wrote: | 1:26 AM (BST). Intrade now gives Conservatives about a 65 percent chance of claiming a majority.
[Less than one hour later]
2:11 AM. Intrade chances of Conservative majority down to 37.3. Clearly Labour are getting some better results here than they were early in the night -- the hold in Gelding, for instance. |
_________________ Scire aliquid laus est, pudor est non discere velle
"It is laudable to know something, it is disgraceful to not want to learn"
~Seneca |
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Teh Digital Dragon

Joined: 09 Jul 2006 Posts: 1888 Location: THE WORLD OF LARNING.
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Posted: Fri May 07, 2010 1:25 am Post subject: |
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Seems like neither lib dems or tory are doing as well as expected. My money is on a hung parliament, the question I reckon is whether labour and lib dem will do well enough to have a chance at a coalition.
Lembit Opik has just lost out to the tories, I'm sure he has a fruitful career in reality tv ahead. _________________ "You cannot run away from a weakness; you must sometimes fight it out or perish. And if that be so, why not now, and where you stand?" |
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CTrees

Joined: 21 Jul 2006 Posts: 3644
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Posted: Fri May 07, 2010 1:51 am Post subject: |
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I think it's most likely that there'll be a hung parliament, but if I were making a bet, it'd be on the conservatives to get the clear majority. That's just because it's a more exciting bet without being ridiculous, though. *shrug* This is why I don't make bets. _________________ “Yields falsehood when preceded by its quotation”
yields falsehood when preceded by its quotation. |
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Mizike

Joined: 09 Jul 2006 Posts: 5120 Location: Iowa City
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Posted: Fri May 07, 2010 1:59 am Post subject: |
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I think the word you're looking for is plurality. There cannot be a hung parliament if one party gets a majority.
Edit: Or, I misread your post. _________________ Scire aliquid laus est, pudor est non discere velle
"It is laudable to know something, it is disgraceful to not want to learn"
~Seneca
Last edited by Mizike on Fri May 07, 2010 2:06 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Teh Digital Dragon

Joined: 09 Jul 2006 Posts: 1888 Location: THE WORLD OF LARNING.
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Posted: Fri May 07, 2010 2:03 am Post subject: |
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It is going to be so close, but I think an overall majority is slowly pulling away from Cameron, he will have the greater mandate but it looks like he might not do well enough to come through on the deals. Someone standing against him in Whitney is dressed as Jesus. _________________ "You cannot run away from a weakness; you must sometimes fight it out or perish. And if that be so, why not now, and where you stand?" |
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Mizike

Joined: 09 Jul 2006 Posts: 5120 Location: Iowa City
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Posted: Fri May 07, 2010 2:13 am Post subject: |
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I don't know much about the history of how British poll results come in, but at this point it seems like those exit polls are way off.
With just under a third of the seats in it's:
Labour - 88
Conservative - 82
Lib. Dem - 10 _________________ Scire aliquid laus est, pudor est non discere velle
"It is laudable to know something, it is disgraceful to not want to learn"
~Seneca |
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Mizike

Joined: 09 Jul 2006 Posts: 5120 Location: Iowa City
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Posted: Fri May 07, 2010 2:21 am Post subject: |
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There is some news personality on the BBC with the first name is Jeremy. He's an absolute dick to all of these politicians and I think I love him _________________ Scire aliquid laus est, pudor est non discere velle
"It is laudable to know something, it is disgraceful to not want to learn"
~Seneca |
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Teh Digital Dragon

Joined: 09 Jul 2006 Posts: 1888 Location: THE WORLD OF LARNING.
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Posted: Fri May 07, 2010 2:30 am Post subject: |
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Jeremy Paxman? Yeah he's awesome, his middle name is actually DICKson.
His finest moment from way back:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KHMO14KuJk
It is too early to say how accurate exit polls were, but they certainly seem right about the Lib Dems being shockingly less succesful than the run up suggested.
Tories overtaken Labour in seats. _________________ "You cannot run away from a weakness; you must sometimes fight it out or perish. And if that be so, why not now, and where you stand?" |
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reasonablymad

Joined: 03 Apr 2007 Posts: 6784
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Posted: Fri May 07, 2010 5:28 am Post subject: |
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this totally reminds me of the black adder election episode. I mean, this seems to be precisely like that. _________________ ... |
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Willem

Joined: 09 Jul 2006 Posts: 6306 Location: wasteland style
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Posted: Fri May 07, 2010 6:35 am Post subject: |
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BBC has 285/232/50 at the moment. Let's translate that into amount of votes.
9,882,732/7,783,385/6,195,194
Fuck you, FPTP. _________________ attitude of a street punk, only cutting selected words out of context to get onself excuse to let one's dirty mouth loose |
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picturesofsky

Joined: 13 May 2008 Posts: 3074 Location: England
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Posted: Fri May 07, 2010 9:03 am Post subject: |
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Hung Parliament, and as it stands, Lib/Lab can't form a majority coalition.
SAD FACE _________________ Ironically, Halen's one of the few people here I wouldn't worry about terrifying my friends and family. In my head he ends every real life conversation stroking his chin and saying, "well yes, that sounds reasonable." |
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Sam the Eagle
Joined: 02 Oct 2006 Posts: 2276 Location: 192.168.0.1
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Posted: Fri May 07, 2010 9:19 am Post subject: |
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Count your belssings, no BNP. _________________ Meu aerobarca esta cheoi de enguias |
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Willem

Joined: 09 Jul 2006 Posts: 6306 Location: wasteland style
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Posted: Fri May 07, 2010 9:35 am Post subject: |
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| Sam the Eagle wrote: | | Count your belssings, no BNP. |
Yes, with 1.9% and zero seats, Britain really dodged a bullet there. :s
Unless the Tories get all the remaining 34 seats and can convince one of the smaller parties into a coalition, they won't get a majority. So, they won't.
Lib/Lab may not have enough seats, but doesn't the popular vote count for anything? 14.5m to the Tories' 10m? Or is FPTP really the worst system?
Also:
| Quote: | This is an historic landslide victory for the conservatives
By JOE | Published: MAY 7, 2010
In an historic and decisive election, David Cameron has won an astonishing slightly more seats than the other parties, catapulting him to the possibility of forming a government.
Despite all of the stumbling blocks standing in his way, including vastly superior funding, the support of major newspapers, an innate sense of entitlement to the job, and three years during which the media assumed that he was prime-minister in waiting, Cameron has defied the odds and predictions to win a clear few more votes than anyone else.
This devastating landslide, on a scale that some will compare to 1997, gives the Conservatives a strong mandate to govern, and sends a clear message from the electorate to the other parties that they are finished and should just shut up.
(c) All newspapers. |
_________________ attitude of a street punk, only cutting selected words out of context to get onself excuse to let one's dirty mouth loose |
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Mini J

Joined: 09 Jul 2006 Posts: 1127 Location: Toronto, ON
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Posted: Fri May 07, 2010 10:24 am Post subject: |
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| Willem wrote: |
Lib/Lab may not have enough seats, but doesn't the popular vote count for anything? Or is FPTP really the worst system? |
No. And yes. _________________ Who needs a signature? |
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CTrees

Joined: 21 Jul 2006 Posts: 3644
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Posted: Fri May 07, 2010 11:36 am Post subject: |
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Ah, fuck. Social Democrats got three seats. This'll be a talking point for Him for the next half decade. *sigh* _________________ “Yields falsehood when preceded by its quotation”
yields falsehood when preceded by its quotation. |
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