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UK elections: Place bets now!
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Mizike



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 5130
Location: Iowa City

PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2010 1:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I love ragging on betting markets like intrade. They are so utterly useless.

538's live blog wrote:
1:26 AM (BST). Intrade now gives Conservatives about a 65 percent chance of claiming a majority.

[Less than one hour later]

2:11 AM. Intrade chances of Conservative majority down to 37.3. Clearly Labour are getting some better results here than they were early in the night -- the hold in Gelding, for instance.

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Teh Digital Dragon



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2010 1:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Seems like neither lib dems or tory are doing as well as expected. My money is on a hung parliament, the question I reckon is whether labour and lib dem will do well enough to have a chance at a coalition.

Lembit Opik has just lost out to the tories, I'm sure he has a fruitful career in reality tv ahead.
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CTrees



Joined: 21 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2010 1:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think it's most likely that there'll be a hung parliament, but if I were making a bet, it'd be on the conservatives to get the clear majority. That's just because it's a more exciting bet without being ridiculous, though. *shrug* This is why I don't make bets.
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Mizike



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2010 1:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the word you're looking for is plurality. There cannot be a hung parliament if one party gets a majority.

Edit: Or, I misread your post.
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Last edited by Mizike on Fri May 07, 2010 2:06 am; edited 1 time in total
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Teh Digital Dragon



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PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2010 2:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It is going to be so close, but I think an overall majority is slowly pulling away from Cameron, he will have the greater mandate but it looks like he might not do well enough to come through on the deals. Someone standing against him in Whitney is dressed as Jesus.
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Mizike



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PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2010 2:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't know much about the history of how British poll results come in, but at this point it seems like those exit polls are way off.

With just under a third of the seats in it's:
Labour - 88
Conservative - 82
Lib. Dem - 10
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Mizike



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PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2010 2:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is some news personality on the BBC with the first name is Jeremy. He's an absolute dick to all of these politicians and I think I love him
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Teh Digital Dragon



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PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2010 2:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jeremy Paxman? Yeah he's awesome, his middle name is actually DICKson.

His finest moment from way back:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KHMO14KuJk

It is too early to say how accurate exit polls were, but they certainly seem right about the Lib Dems being shockingly less succesful than the run up suggested.

Tories overtaken Labour in seats.
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reasonablymad



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PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2010 5:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

this totally reminds me of the black adder election episode. I mean, this seems to be precisely like that.
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Willem



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PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2010 6:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BBC has 285/232/50 at the moment. Let's translate that into amount of votes.

9,882,732/7,783,385/6,195,194

Fuck you, FPTP.
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picturesofsky



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PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2010 9:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hung Parliament, and as it stands, Lib/Lab can't form a majority coalition.

SAD FACE
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Sam the Eagle



Joined: 02 Oct 2006
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PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2010 9:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Count your belssings, no BNP.
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Willem



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PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2010 9:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sam the Eagle wrote:
Count your belssings, no BNP.

Yes, with 1.9% and zero seats, Britain really dodged a bullet there. :s

Unless the Tories get all the remaining 34 seats and can convince one of the smaller parties into a coalition, they won't get a majority. So, they won't.

Lib/Lab may not have enough seats, but doesn't the popular vote count for anything? 14.5m to the Tories' 10m? Or is FPTP really the worst system?

Also:
Quote:
This is an historic landslide victory for the conservatives
By JOE | Published: MAY 7, 2010
In an historic and decisive election, David Cameron has won an astonishing slightly more seats than the other parties, catapulting him to the possibility of forming a government.

Despite all of the stumbling blocks standing in his way, including vastly superior funding, the support of major newspapers, an innate sense of entitlement to the job, and three years during which the media assumed that he was prime-minister in waiting, Cameron has defied the odds and predictions to win a clear few more votes than anyone else.

This devastating landslide, on a scale that some will compare to 1997, gives the Conservatives a strong mandate to govern, and sends a clear message from the electorate to the other parties that they are finished and should just shut up.

(c) All newspapers.

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Mini J



Joined: 09 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2010 10:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Willem wrote:

Lib/Lab may not have enough seats, but doesn't the popular vote count for anything? Or is FPTP really the worst system?

No. And yes.
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CTrees



Joined: 21 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Fri May 07, 2010 11:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ah, fuck. Social Democrats got three seats. This'll be a talking point for Him for the next half decade. *sigh*
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