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BETTING ENDS! SCOTUS Upholds Healthcare Reform
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CTrees



Joined: 21 Jul 2006
Posts: 3772

PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 12:24 pm    Post subject: BETTING ENDS! SCOTUS Upholds Healthcare Reform Reply with quote

What's your bet, guys? ACA upheld in full? Individual Mandate struck down, but severed? Entire thing shitcanned?

One way or the other, the "two years of perpetual, partisan whinging" which we've called "the healthcare debate" is likely about to draw to a clo... okay, couldn't keep a straight face on that one. It's about to hit round two, as one or both sides suddenly experiences a level of rage not experienced since the Bush v. Gore decisiono. Also there's a chance the SCOTUS may decide to punt, and hear rearguments about the case in the next term, delaying their decision until then. Which... honestly I'm kinda hoping for, as it would represent a troll that can, without hyperbole, be described as "epic."

Honestly... my guess is that the entire thing gets tossed, but a really interesting dissent gets written. Time magazine may be perplexed by Justice Kennedy, but he's fairly libertarian (yes I do realized I just cited an extreme libertarian site for that). Seems to me he's unlikely to approve of the Individual Mandate. As to the severability question... maybe it's just pessimism, but yeah, my gut says entire thing gets trashed, and we wait until the next Democratically controlled Congress for a new bill, eliminating the Constitutional issues.

For reference, Intrade is currently giving it 73.5% that the IM is declared Unconstitutional. Not sure how good they are on court decisions, though...

Oh, and I really, really hate that even the left has gone to calling it "Obamacare." I used to be able to just ignore anyone who used the term, but not so much anymore. Maybe it's to reinforce the comparison to Romneycare? I dunno.

EDIT: Decision is in! Individual Mandate is a valid use of taxation powers, medicaid provisions are to be narrowly read, entire ACA upheld. I look forward to the GOP graciously accepting defeat.
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Last edited by CTrees on Thu Jun 28, 2012 6:42 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Yinello



Joined: 10 May 2012
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As a Dutchie, I'll just sit in the corner with my popcorn and tax-paid healthcare.
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Sudoku



Joined: 19 Jun 2012
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 2:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As an Asian, I'll just make some tea, and go to a goverment-owned hospital for eye check-ups, while the issue gets a little article in the Star 'World News' section like all the other stuff.

HEY YINELLO LETS SHARE THE CORNER
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CTrees



Joined: 21 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 2:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SCOTUSblog is estimating 10:15. In the meantime, the Stolen Valor Act is unconstitutional, but open for redrafting.
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Him



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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 2:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I bet there will be some insurance company execs popping champagne tonight.
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Yinello



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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 2:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sudoku wrote:
HEY YINELLO LETS SHARE THE CORNER


OKAY

*bundles up with Sudoku in the corner*

My newswebsite nu.nl is saying that 5 of 9 judges said that the healthcare plans of Obama isn't against the constitution.
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Mizike



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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Health Care wins! Mandate upheld! By Justice Roberts, of all people..


And the right wing is freaking out.
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Mizike



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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also, this thread title is wrong. One important portion was overturned. The Justices rule that the Federal Government cannot take away Medicaid funds from states who refuse to expand the Medicaid base. They can withhold NEW funds, but not the existing levels.

It's a new precedent that brings a number of existing laws and practices (e.g., drinking age and highway funds) into question.
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WheelsOfConfusion



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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was wondering about that provision, since it's the one that nobody was talking about. When the federal government jumps in and helps fund things that would be states' responsibilities they sometimes use their participation to impose rules and regulations on the use of the money. I think this is how they got the speed limit lowered to 55 a while back.
How much of that practice is threatened by this decision remains to be seen.
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Dogen



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 5:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Haha... Rep. Gary Ackerman is apparently carrying a sign that says "Obama/Roberts 2012."
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CTrees



Joined: 21 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 5:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not sure, and haven't yet seen much. I got my initial info from SCOTUSblog, who at the time just said that the provision was being narrowly read, vice struck. Been in meetings ever since. Work, heh, always interfering with my webbrowsing. Don't they understand priorities!?!
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Michael



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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 5:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Now get the man a teeterm and you can start making things better Smile

Chop chop!
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CTrees



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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 6:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting reading on why the Individual Mandate was held to not be a tax for the purposes of the Anti-Injunction Act, but was held to be a tax for the purposes of Constitutionality. Nope, the court holding that it's simultaneously a tax and not a tax isn't convoluted at all.
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WheelsOfConfusion



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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 6:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If there's one word that definitely doesn't apply to SCOTUS rulings, it's "convoluted!"
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mouse



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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

yeah, npr was saying that repubs are seeing that 'tax' judgement as a way to get rid of ACA, because taxes only need 50 votes in the senate to be voted down (of course, everything still seems to need 60 votes to even be brought up for discussion so......)

i will be interested in seeing how many of the 26 states who sued not to have to expand medicaid are really going to turn their backs on all that money. and the jobs they will be paying for with that money. that's the thing about this i-hate-broccoli bit, you end up only hurting yourself (or in this case, your unfortunate constituents).

also heard romney fulminate about how the government shouldn't be allowed to get between you and your doctor. i really, truly hope that in the first presidential debate, the moderator will demand romney explain how expanding access to doctors (by increasing insurance coverage) will mean that the government is getting between you and your doctor.
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